Congress still in brisk pace over Karnataka Polls Results

Bengaluru, May 15: Earlier, Karnataka exit polls predicted a hung assembly, the BJP surged ahead towards the magic 113-mark in the Karnataka elections on Tuesday, leaving the ruling Congress stunned and JD(S) at a third spot.

Media attention has shifted to vote share in the Karnataka elections where the Congress, at 37.9 percent, according to data from IndiaSpend, is marginally ahead of BJP's 36.9 percent at around 20 minutes past noon.

The BJP, however, is ahead in 112 seats (leads plus wins) while the figure is 64 for Congress. This has been picked up by Congress spokespersons who are claiming moral victory for the party.

During the Gujarat Assembly polls, the BJP managed around 49.1 percent vote share, which was a percentage more than its share in 2012 and yet its seats came down from triple digits (115) to double digits (99) in 2017.

The Congress, similarly, got disproportionately more seats than its vote share would indicate. This happens because of India's first-past-the-post voting system where the votes for a losing candidate are not taken into account. BJP's vote share, though comfortably more than Congress' in Gujarat, was more concentrated compared to an even spreading for Congress.

To extrapolate this into a grand narrative is misleading. What should be noted is that BJP's vote share has jumped in Karnataka this time compared to its 2013 tally (when it recorded 19.9 percent) while Congress' has remained static.